Prediction markets โ shares priced by live probability, early conviction pays off.
| # | Market | Type | Current prices | Status | Opened | Closes / Left | Trades | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #26 | Who wins this game? | WINNER | 63.2% 36.8% | OPEN | Apr 18 04:14 | on game end | 1 | 10c | 9.19c |
| #23 |
Who wins this game?
โ South |
WINNER | 7.7% 92.3% | RESOLVED | Apr 18 00:54 | Apr 17 23:55 | 14 | 22.19c | - |
| #22 |
Who wins this game?
โ South |
WINNER | 21% 79% | RESOLVED | Apr 17 22:26 | Apr 17 22:47 | 29 | 69.25c | - |
| #19 |
Who wins this game?
โ South |
WINNER | 50% 50% | RESOLVED | Apr 17 19:58 | Apr 17 20:16 | 10 | 25.25c | - |
| #3 |
Who wins this game?
โ South |
WINNER | 33.4% 66.6% | RESOLVED | Apr 17 18:57 | Apr 17 17:14 | 3 | 2.1c | - |
| #24 | LVR test market | CUSTOM | 66.2% 33.8% | CANCELLED | Apr 18 03:05 | Apr 18 01:05 | 3 | 5.5c | - |
| #4 | Who wins this game? | WINNER | 65.6% 34.4% | CANCELLED | Apr 17 19:18 | Apr 17 19:45 | 8 | 16.89c | - |
| # | Player | Balance | Earned | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UwUmeowFables | 22.59 | 167.33 | 144.74 |
| 2 | Menander | 22.4 | 22.4 | 0 |
| 3 | Eagle34 | 22 | 42.18 | 20.17 |
| 4 | Varoos | 21.97 | 21.97 | 0 |
| 5 | Speteos | 16.06 | 16.06 | 0 |
| 6 | cojito | 15.64 | 37.75 | 22.11 |
| 7 | OneBadPanda | 15.5 | 15.5 | 0 |
| 8 | coffeeowl | 15.13 | 51.02 | 35.89 |
| 9 | J3 | 14.94 | 14.94 | 0 |
| 10 | FullFruntall | 14.9 | 29.15 | 14.25 |
| 11 | ElBifurcado | 14.9 | 14.9 | 0 |
| 12 | developer | 14.82 | 80.24 | 65.41 |
| 13 | wiktor1666 | 13.95 | 13.95 | 0 |
| 14 | tonystarks1990 | 13.54 | 13.54 | 0 |
| 15 | cogito123 | 12.9 | 117.06 | 104.16 |
| 16 | Phylix | 12.89 | 12.89 | 0 |
| 17 | joschua725 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 0 |
| 18 | geldow | 12.19 | 12.19 | 0 |
| 19 | ausmister | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 | CognitiveFun | 12 | 12 | 0 |
Everything you need to know about BB Bets v2. Open a section to read more. Most actions are in-game via askbot; the website is a read/trade mirror.
A market has 2โ5 options. Each option has shares. A winning share pays exactly 1c at resolution; a losing share pays 0c. The live price of a share (in coins, between 0.001 and 0.999) is its implied probability โ prices across options always sum to 1.
Two ways to get filled:
r_i ร r_j = k across option reserves.Fees on every trade: 1% is burned (permanently destroyed) + a dynamic LP fee (base 1% + LVR compensation, scaling with how much your trade moves the price). A trade that rebalances the market toward 50/50 pays only the 2% base; a trade that destabilizes it pays more, up to a 41% cap. Preview every trade to see the exact breakdown. No house fee. See the LVR dynamic fees section below for the math.
Market buy/sell:
all.Limit orders:
PRICE ร SHARES coins as collateral until filled.Preview before trading: askbot market preview buy|sell MID OPT AMOUNT. Website preview is live and debounced on every keystroke.
Option alias: wherever OPT is expected you can use the index (0,1,2โฆ), the full name, or an unambiguous prefix (yes, nor, etc.).
Why some trades are rejected as "too large": a single AMM trade is capped at 50% of the target option's pool reserve. This prevents one trade from pushing the price past extremes (e.g. 99%โ1%) on a thin pool and discourages whale-bombing. If you hit this, either split the trade into smaller chunks, or use a limit order (no cap). Bigger pools = bigger trades possible โ you can also LP to grow the pool yourself.
What LPs are: a market is just a pool of option-shares. When you LP, you deposit coins in exchange for shares of every option โ the pool owns those shares. Traders buy/sell against the pool. On every trade, a dynamic LP fee is added to the pool: a 1% flat base plus an LVR component that scales with how much the trade destabilizes the market. The more trading โ and especially the more lopsided the market gets โ the more you earn. See the LVR dynamic fees section for details.
COINS of liquidity at the current price, in exchange for LP tokens. On a skewed pool (not 50/50), you also get back "bonus shares" of the cheaper options so that your deposit matches the pool's current price mix."Why do I get shares back? Who am I selling to?" The pool literally holds shares of every option. Your LP tokens are a claim on a slice of those shares. When you remove, the pool hands you your slice. You then sell those shares back to the pool (same AMM everyone uses). In effect you're selling to the other LPs still in the pool โ they absorb your shares and you get coins from the pool's collateral.
You can't drain the last drop if others hold shares. If you try to LP-remove while other players still hold shares of this market, the system leaves a minimum 0.01c in the pool so the AMM stays alive for them. Otherwise you'd strand their positions โ they wouldn't be able to sell until resolve.
Impermanent loss: if the price moves away from where you entered, withdrawing before resolution can lock in a loss. Holding through resolution pays you the market-settled value of the reserves (collateral minus payouts to winners).
Leaving before resolve = forfeiting future fees. LP fees accumulated since your last action stay in the pool as collateral. At resolve, the surplus (collateral โ winner payouts) is distributed pro-rata to the active LP tokens. If you removed fully before resolve, you took your shares with you but left the fee residue behind โ others collect it, or if nobody is left, it burns.
LVR makes LPing profitable in expectation. Before LVR, LPs were structurally losing to informed traders (classic impermanent loss from directional markets). With dynamic fees at ฮฑ=1.5, the system over-compensates the pool's mark-to-market loss on every trade โ LPs net a small positive on average, even on markets that resolve decisively. Chop markets (oscillating prices) are particularly lucrative for LPs because every swing pays.
The LP fee on every AMM trade is dynamic, based on how much the trade moves the pool's mark-to-market value. The fee is sized to compensate liquidity providers for the instantaneous loss a price-moving trade inflicts on the pool.
Pool fair value for an n-option CPMM with reserves r_i, invariant k = ฮ r_i, and prices p_i = (1/r_i) / ฮฃ(1/r_j):
V(pฬ) = n ยท (k ยท ฮ i pi)1/n
V is maximized at uniform prices (pi = 1/n) and drops as the market skews toward extremes. A pure swap preserves k but shifts prices, so V decreases โ that's the LP's instantaneous loss, called LVR.
Per-trade LVR:
LVR = max(0, V(pฬbefore) โ V(pฬafter))
Zero if the trade rebalances (V increases), strictly positive if it destabilizes (V decreases).
Your fee:
feeLP = min(0.01 ยท notional + 1.5 ยท LVR, 0.40 ยท notional)
Plus a flat 1% burn on top.
ฮฑ = 1.5 means LPs over-compensate by 50% โ systematically profitable on informed flow. The 40% cap protects against degenerate fees on extreme whale trades.
Rule of thumb: trades that move the market toward 50/50 pay only the 2% base (1% burn + 1% LP). Trades that push it further from 50/50 pay progressively more โ up to 41% total on the most destabilizing moves. Use the preview to see the exact breakdown before you commit.
Limit orders are not LVR-fee'd. P2P fills (limit orders matching) don't swap against the AMM, so they pay a flat 2% (1% burn + 1% LP) regardless of price move. If you want to market-make without paying LVR fees, use limit orders.
Three types:
north, south. Auto-created if none exists.
<15m, 15โ30m, 30โ60m, 60โ120m, 120m+.
:. LP โฅ 5c. Prices are optional; if omitted, uniform.Picking initial prices: your opening pool determines where the market starts. If you think YES is 70% likely, open at 0.3,0.7 rather than 50/50 โ you'll pay less if you're right and more if you're wrong. Extremes 0/100 are clamped to 0.001/0.999.
LP risk: your 5c+ deposit is the market's liquidity. You earn trade fees (dynamic, heavier on destabilizing trades) but you're also exposed to impermanent loss โ if prices move heavily and then resolve at an extreme, the pool is drained of the winning option. The LVR compensation built into the fee formula (ฮฑ=1.5) is designed to over-compensate this IL on average, but any single market can still go against the LP. Don't over-concentrate your LP on thin or highly directional markets.
positions) โ your open positions (or another player's), mark-to-market value, unrealized PnL.Auto-resolve: winner and duration markets resolve automatically when the game ends. Winning shares each pay 1c; losing shares pay 0c. The pool's remaining collateral is distributed pro-rata to LPs. Any leftover due to float drift or skewed initial prices is burned (logged).
Manual resolve (custom only): askbot market resolve MID OPT โ admin only.
Cancel: askbot market cancel MID โ creator can cancel only if there are no trades yet; admin can cancel any time. Cancel refunds: net P&L to each trader, original deposit to each LP, and unfilled collateral to each open order.
Admin is the server admin list (case-insensitive).
No. Each share is worth 0โ1c; the worst-case value of your position is 0. LP deposits cap your LP-side loss at the deposited amount minus fees earned.
Limits only fill when someone sends a market order at a price that crosses yours, or when the AMM price is pushed past your limit. Watch the book via askbot market orders MID.
Yes. You get proportional shares back (not coins); sell them to convert.
They're permanently gone from the supply โ the burn is the game's deflationary sink against inflation from kills/challenges.
Optional cap on buy/sell. If price moves more than X% during the fill (e.g. because a limit order filled first or the pool is thin), the transaction rolls back and you keep your coins.
LP fees (base 1% + LVR component) stay inside the pool and grow reserves โ you realize them when you withdraw LP or at resolution. The 1% burn is logged in the burn feed. Your current LP position's mark-to-market value accounts for accumulated fees in real time.
Rejected at creation โ option names must be unique case-insensitively, 1โ64 chars.
| Command | Does |
|---|---|
askbot market help [trade|lp|create|info|admin] | Help, paginated by section. |
askbot market list | Open markets + current prices. |
askbot market info MID | Detail of one market. |
askbot market orders MID | Order book. |
askbot market preview buy|sell MID OPT AMOUNT | Dry-run a trade. |
askbot market create winner LP [P1,P2] | Auto-resolving winner market. |
askbot market create duration LP [P1..P5] | Auto-resolving duration market. |
askbot market create custom TITLE:OPT1:โฆ:DURATION:LP[:PRICES] | Manual-resolve market. |
askbot market resolve MID OPT | Admin: force resolve. |
askbot market cancel MID | Creator (no trades) or admin. |
askbot buy MID OPT COINS [SLIP%] | Market buy. |
askbot sell MID OPT SHARES|all [SLIP%] | Market sell. |
askbot limit buy|sell MID OPT PRICE SHARES | Place limit order. |
askbot limit cancel OID | Cancel limit order. |
askbot lp add MID COINS | Add liquidity. |
askbot lp remove MID AMOUNT|all | Burn LP tokens for shares. |
askbot shares [PLAYER?] / askbot positions [PLAYER?] | Your (or another player's) open positions. |
askbot myorders | Your open limit orders. |
askbot coins [PLAYER?] | Your (or another player's) balance. |
askbot coins send PLAYER AMOUNT | Transfer coins (min 0.1c). |
askbot pnl [PLAYER?] | Lifetime PnL. |
askbot burned | Total burn stats. |
askbot auth | Get a one-time login token for this website. |